In the near term, the key driver will still be the government's fiscal spending.
The Reserve Bank should focus on making liquidity easier rather than cutting rates if the intent is to drive growth, Axis Bank's chief economist Neelkanth Mishra said on Tuesday. Mishra, who is also a part-time member of the Economic Advisory Council to the PM, said the rate cut announced earlier this month or even the subsequent ones if they were to come will not end up increasing borrowings as the scarce liquidity will hamper transmission.
The Sensex is likely to rule between 13,200 and 14,400 points and the rupee may touch Rs 54-55 by June next, Credit Suisse India has said in a report.
The government on Wednesday reconstituted the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) under existing chairman Bibek Debroy, for a period of two years. V Anantha Nageswaran has been dropped, Rakesh Mohan (former deputy governor of RBI), Poonam Gupta (director general of NCAER) and TT Ram Mohan (professor, IIM Ahmedabad) have been appointed as part-time members of the reconstituted EAC-PM. The other part-time members of the Council include Sajid Chenoy, Neelkanth Mishra and Nilesh Shah.
These unicorns, or startups valued at over USD 1 billion, are across industries, beyond technology and tech-enabled sectors as well, like pharmaceuticals, and consumer goods, Credit Suisse India equity strategist Neelkanth Mishra told reporters in Mumbai.
UBS stepping in to save Credit Suisse with a $3.2-billion acquisition has provided the beleaguered Swiss bank's India employees a glimmer of hope. The surprise deal - engineered by the Swiss government - has triggered optimism of fewer job losses at Credit Suisse's India unit and better synergies at key verticals, such as wealth management and investment banking. "UBS is a much stronger hand. Coming within its fold will give Credit Suisse's wealth management and investment banking divisions a good home.
After several years of downgrades to the country's medium-term growth outlook, the estimates are likely to be upgraded now, Credit Suisse said in a report. The country's economy is showing signs of bottoming out, it said. According to the report, the consensus forecasts of GDP growth for FY2022 over FY2020 stopped falling after October 2020 (currently at (-) 1 per cent). Analysts at Credit Suisse expect these estimates to be revised upwards.
The failure of SVB was due to idiosyncratic reasons, but shows how higher rates can expose fault lines in unforeseen places, observes Neelkanth Mishra.
Swiss brokerage Credit Suisse expects the economy to continue to show positive surprises and record up to 9 per cent growth in the next fiscal. For the current financial year too, the brokerage anticipates growth to be higher than the consensus forecast of 8.4-9.5 per cent, and printing in at around 10.5 per cent. As a policy, Credit Suisse does not provide absolute growth numbers in its forecast.
An Uttar Pradesh government spokesperson said a formal order for all eateries along the Kanwar Yatra route in the state was likely to be issued soon.
Rumours in the bureaucracy on his successor include the names of Sajjid Chinoy of JP Morgan, Rathin Roy of the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, Neelkanth Mishra of Credit Suisse and the principal economic advisor, Sanjeev Sanyal.
The purchase or construction of houses by large numbers of people can add meaningfully to India's economic growth, points out Neelkanth Mishra.
'With the June quarter GDP shrinking by nearly a quarter, there is an even greater economic imperative: Reduction of uncertainty,' observes Neelkanth Mishra.
While analysts remains overweight on financials, property, discretionary, industrials and materials, they maintain a neutral stance on pharma, telecom and energy; and underweight on staples, utilities, and IT services.
'For those looking at forward-looking signals for the economy from the stock markets, the relative performance of small and mid-caps may be a better indicator of the future than the index levels of the narrower and more popular indices', says Neelkanth Mishra.
The best of India's brains are instead busy solving the world's problems (I deliberately exaggerate a bit to drive home the point), as our policies incentivise them to do so.
'Our preference remains for the less-expensive industrial stocks, which are showing good earnings momentum.'
For the sake of transparency, and to reduce undesirable bond market volatility, clarity on these would be welcome, preferably before the budgets for the next fiscal year get finalised, says Neelkanth Mishra.
In prior elections, not only have opinion poll forecasts been very different from the results, the error margin has increased over time. One need only look at the charts that show the Sensex half a year before and after the results day for the last six elections. The markets did not change direction in any, says Neelkanth Mishra.
GST rate cut for real-estate, income transfer scheme, farm loan waivers execution and recapitalisation of PSU banks have the potential to boost India's growth in a few months, says Neelkanth Mishra.
Given the concerns around trade wars that threaten to jeopardise global capital flows as well, attracting foreign capital needs to be a policy priority, says Neelkanth Mishra.
FIIs hold as much as 27 per cent in the over $1.6 trillion Sensex market capitalisation as of the September quarter, which is at a historic high.
Will 2022 be a year of contrasting narratives -- one filled with caution and the other with continued optimism?
The improving earnings and economic outlook has titled the scales back in favour of Indian equities this year, reports Pavan Burugula.
Some may lose competitiveness due to higher compliance costs
Stick to export-focussed plays, large-caps, say analysts
The prime minister will be part of the launch of several development initiatives on his birthday.
Experts say the market is more bullish on the BJP as it will ensure continuity in policymaking.
The next key battle the market will watch out for will be in Congress-ruled Karnataka
At a pre-Budget meeting, the FM was asked to ensure that NBFCs come out of the liquidity crisis they are facing with the help of RBI. They also spoke about the futility of trying to achieve a 3 per cent fiscal deficit target over the medium term.
Indian equities are no longer cheap vis-a-vis global markets, and only a short distance away from being the most expensive they have ever been.
13 eminent economists, including former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan and current International Monetary Fund Chief Economist Gita Gopinath, in a report have asked the political establishment not to resort to populist tricks.
Citing the impact of the second wave of the pandemic over the economy and consumer sentiment, Swiss brokerage Credit Suisse has lowered its nominal GDP growth forecast by 150-300 bps to 13-14 per cent, but expects a stronger recovery in the second half as it sees the lockdowns having limited impact on tax collections. Last month, Neelkanth Mishra, the co-head of equity strategy for Credit Suisse Asia Pacific, and India equity strategist, had told PTI that he expected the real GDP to fall to 8.5-9 per cent in FY22 due to the more severe pandemic attack. The virus case load has crossed the 25-million mark, death toll from the same is nearing 2.9 lakh mark, which is one of the highest in the world as the test positivity rate has been around 15 per cent for long.
613 candidates are in the fray on 54 seats, including those falling in Prime Minister Narendra Modi's parliamentary segment Varanasi.
Voting for the seventh and final phase of the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections covering 54 seats, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi's parliamentary constituency Varanasi, will be held on Monday to decide the phase of 613 candidates.
The PM-elect wants to fix the coal sector; cut coal imports by boosting output.
Spotlight likely on cement, metals, road cos
The RBI fell short of pumping Rs 150 billion into the economy at the beginning of 2018-2019.
The curtain came down on rumbustious electioneering over the last two months when assembly polls were also held in four other states - Goa, Uttarakhand, Punjab and Manipur.
While companies having fewer visa holders in the US seem to be less exposed to rising protectionism, most front-line IT stocks are trading at attractive levels and, to a large extent, factor in near-term headwinds.
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